Up until yesterday – September 16th Ontario had no posted board price. Competing jurisdictions had values that growers could price their white beans on. Ontario lacked a price purportedly because of no direction from global markets – lack of buyer support. There are no reports of buyers flocking to the market at this point, rather the industry needs to post a price so that growers can price out their overages and deliveries.
The prices posted range from $25 to $27 Canadian per bag.
With growers aggressively booking new crop (2011) soybeans and wheat which will gross them between 450 to 500 dollars per acre, the industry can now post a reference price for this current crop. This is likely done by using a crude form of net present value (NPV) calculation based on the following assumptions
An interest rate of 8.5% (approximation for an ‘unsecured’ loan)
Commercial storage rate of $0.125/Mt/day
Estimated 300 day term
A nominal discount of $1.00/bag between current crop and 2011
The calculations yield a future price of between $29.50 and 31.50 per bag.
Assuming an average yield of 18 bags per acre this would gross the farmer between $530 – 570 per acre in 2011. This new crop gross dollar per acre estimate, when compared to what other crops are yielding might, under normal circumstances, entice some growers. However given this year’s challenges there is underlying sentiment that such $80 to 120 historical risk premium maybe insufficient.