Saturday, August 16th, 2008
So says the August 16 article in Statpub. Here below is a heavily edited version of the article
There may not be enough beans to go around, is the gist of the story.
While this year’s production forecast for North America is higher than initially expected, it is still down 5% from last year.
The USDA is projecting lower production in 11 of the 18 producing States, due primarily to reduced acreage. However the USA’s largest producing State, North Dakota may, if projections are realized, have its highest dry bean yields on record.
Based on Statistics Canada acreage estimates, Canadian production could inch upward. Regardless North American production would end up dropping and stocks drawn down. The net result – North America has fewer dry edible beans available to cover domestic and prospective export demand.
Dry edible bean production is also down in Latin America.
Competing commodities – wheat, corn and soybean values have shown substantial price pullbacks – dry bean “not so much”.
Recent weakness in other major field crops, if sustained may have their impact in future years.
[ Editor's Note: Soybeans compete most closely with dry beans for acres, that will be the crop whose price we’ll need to watch.]