In its most recent Vegetables and Melons Outlook report ‘click here for the full report’ shows the 2007 U.S. dry edible bean crop up 4 percent from a year earlier at 25.2 million cwt. (100 lb. bags) – from 4 percent fewer acres, in spite of hot, dry weather in some key producing states.
The national per-acre yield is estimated to have averaged 17.1 cwt, up 8% from a year ago. In North Dakota, with 42 percent of the 2007 crop, ideal weather allowed production to jumped 38% – a near record 10.6 million cwt.
Dry edible bean acreage is expected to decrease in 2008 because of stiff competition for land resources from traditional crops, according to the writer Gary Lucier – USDA economist.
The report notes grower prices for corn, wheat, barley, and soybeans were all well above their long-term averages. Dry bean prices have been rising in an attempt to maintain competitiveness.
Nonetheless, it appears that 2008 U.S. dry bean plantings will again decline to perhaps below the 1.5 million acres planted in 2007. Should yields not match last year’s outstanding levels, U.S. dry bean output could decline, exacerbating the already tight available supply situation in some of the lesser market classes.
In the overall picture, production is not expected to exceed this year’s 25.2 million cwt.

For the 2008 North American dry bean crop a number of private forecasters are already penciling in a drop of 6% in total (all market classes) seeded acres. This is but a continuation of a long-term trend of declining net bean acres throughout North America. Should yields drop below trend line, production would collapse.
Under such a scenario available supplies and pipeline stocks would range from moderately to extremely tight. Carry-over stocks under one scenario would be negative in all but two market classes – Pinto and Black beans, even though both these types are expected to experience fairly large drops in seeded area.
Large downward shifts in acreage are expected in North America’s premier growing region the Red River valley which includes the states of North Dakota, Minnesota. Reductions may extend into southern Manitoba. Forecasted drops for certain market classes range as high as 27%.
Such declines in acreage, if realized will certainly bring supply challenges. Should yields not hold trend then severe shortages of some if not most market classes of dry beans could well develop.
In order to maintain sufficient ‘base’ acres, prices (of all market classes of beans) offered to producers may well have to rise above present levels. This only to make beans look better competitively priced with the traditional mainline crops of soybeans, wheat and corn.
Should futures and cash markets for wheat, corn and soybeans remain at current levels through the winter, and dry bean prices not respond, most classes of dry edible beans may be unable to compete for acres in the spring. This would be true on an absolute cash basis and as noted from some US quarters that for many US producers dry beans lag in returns basis insurable acreage revenue.
The gross per acre revenue spreads between wheat, soybeans and corn to dry edible beans has been narrowing in recent years. Stated another way gross per acre revenue ‘premiums’ generated by dry beans is eroding versus the traditional crops. These premiums may have narrowed to a point where dry beans, as priced today, no longer offer a sufficiently attractive incentive to return to risk and time.
In order to maintain North American seeded area at current levels, grower prices for dry beans as a class may need to rise.
One analysis suggests the price for ‘the bean’ historically on the lowest pricing rung needs to be closer to $31.00/cwt. (100 lb. bag). While those beans historically in a higher priced market class may need to see their value exceed $36.00/cwt. (100lb. bag)
Initial reports for Ontario suggest these pricing levels are available and “grower uptake” is good.
However the US market is the driver for dry bean prices. In order to reverse the long-term downward trend in edible bean acres the market may need to see a sustained significant price increase which at the moment does not appear to be the case.

Michigan’s 2007 dry bean production is estimated at 3.02 million cwt, down 26% from 4.09 million cwt in 2006, according to the USDA, NASS, Michigan Field Office. Harvested area, at 195,000 acres, was 9% below 2006. The yield was 1,550 pounds per acre, down 350 pounds from last season. Dry conditions from mid-June to the beginning of August reduced yield.